We write when there is something worth saying.
A note goes out to investors every month on what the market did and where the process is positioned.
Nifty IT rose 17% in July, its best month in two years. We hold no IT, so this note explains why. It covers what drove the rally, why the index is still about 33% below its December 2024 high, the price levels we need to see before buying, why our 31% weight in banking held returns back this month, and what the portfolio bought and sold in July.
AI has split the market in two. In the US, 19 of the 20 best-performing S&P 500 stocks this year were AI-related. In India the Nifty 500 went nowhere at −2.6%, but underneath it the companies building data centres rose 16.7% while IT services fell 23%. The note names the top 20 winners and losers, ranks all 28 themes, and sets out India’s own data-centre plan — 1.6 GW today to 5 GW by 2030.
India has no AI company of its own, and this note argues it does not need one. AI runs on power, cables, steel and cooling — all of which India makes. It maps each holding to the part of the AI build it supplies: Cummins and Adani Power for electricity, KEI for cables, Welspun for cooling pipes, Bharat Electronics for defence systems, NALCO and Lloyds Metals for aluminium and iron ore. Full sector weights and the four main risks are included.
Indian large-caps are cheaper than their own history — the Nifty 50 at 20x earnings against a 23.4x average, and Bank Nifty at 14x against 23.6x, a 40% discount. The note explains what is driving the volatility, gives the reasoning behind each of the eighteen holdings one at a time, lists the four risks being watched, and sets out what rate cuts and defence orders could mean from here.
Written during the March fall, when portfolios were down and selling felt tempting. It looks at eight crises since 1980 — every one was followed by a positive year, with markets up 91% in the twelve months after 26/11 and 86% after the Iraq war. It also shows the Nifty’s momentum reading at its most oversold since the COVID crash, and how the portfolio is positioned through it.
Eight conflicts since 1980 — Iran–Iraq, the Gulf War, Kargil, 9/11, Iraq War II, 26/11, Ukraine and Israel–Hamas — and exactly what the Sensex did during each one, six months later and a year later. The results are not what most people expect: the Sensex rose 37% during the Kargil war, and the year after the Gulf War was the best in its history at +82%. Seven of the eight were positive a year on, with the full table included.
Investors kept asking whether the run in gold and silver had gone too far. This note answers with fifty years of price history: today’s moves look like the start of past super-cycles rather than the end of a rally. It then makes the case for industrial metals — copper breaking out of a twenty-year range, aluminium out of a long consolidation — explains why metals tend to lead commodity cycles, and sets out how position sizes are kept controlled.
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